Western intelligence reports indicate that the Kremlin leader is in an “unusual state of tension,” suggesting that Vladimir Putin may once again try to intimidate the West, though “in a completely new way,” ahead of the U.S. presidential elections. The German outlet Redaktionsnetzwerk Deutschland notes that NATO’s 32 member states are currently engaged in intense debates, focusing on a range of troubling scenarios tied to Putin’s potential moves.
“According to all available reports, discussions are ‘a bit more nervous than usual’ these days. While there’s no clear consensus on what might happen next, everyone agrees on an ‘unusual state of tension’ that could soon explode with renewed intensity. Putin has recently faced multiple setbacks. China now views Russia more as a raw materials colony, India is covertly supplying ammunition to Kyiv through intermediaries, and Turkey is demanding the return of Crimea to Ukraine more forcefully than ever. Moscow’s global diplomatic success would look much different,” the journalists remark, adding that Putin’s military situation is even more dire.
Given this, leading figures in Western intelligence expect something destructive from the Russian dictator, possibly in the form of an ‘October surprise’. For decades, American political scientists have used this term to describe unexpected, often dramatic developments just weeks before U.S. presidential elections.
“In 2024, a U.S. election year, an international crisis that escalates more dramatically than before could tarnish the ruling Democrats in Washington and boost Donald Trump and his Republicans toward victory,” writes Redaktionsnetzwerk Deutschland.
Nik Lange, a Senior Fellow at the Munich Security Conference and former head of planning at Germany’s Federal Ministry of Defence, points out that Putin has carefully crafted a broad set of options to deploy at his discretion. “These range from manipulating social media in the U.S. and enlisting young European petty criminals to spark fires across Europe, to the symbolic destruction of Western satellites in space,” Lange explains.
The German media also highlights that “expert assessments from other NATO countries are strikingly similar.” According to the head of a Baltic intelligence agency, Putin isn’t fixated on any single threat, terrorist act, or military manoeuvre. From the Russian perspective, what really matters are the so-called “second-order effects”—the economic, political, and psychological fallout of exerting influence.
“Putin, a KGB officer by training, remains focused on what Stalin’s era referred to as ‘subversion,’” he explains. “The aim is for the West to be thrown into confusion, start doubting its own governments, succumb to fear of Moscow, and lose the resolve to defend itself.”
Western intelligence services might be less jittery if it weren’t for the recent surge in suspicious Russian activity across Europe. Cyberattacks originating from Russia on military and civilian networks in the West have become more frequent and aggressive. There have even been instances of unknown saboteurs cutting power lines to isolated NATO listening posts in the northern Baltic Sea. Meanwhile, Russian research vessels have been spotted repeatedly crisscrossing over transatlantic communication cables, raising alarms.
Putin’s five scenarios
Redaktionsnetzwerk Deutschland has identified five potential actions by Putin that are influencing ongoing discussions within the Alliance. The first scenario highlights the use of Russian drones operating over NATO countries.
“From Putin’s perspective, provocations involving drones serve to sow discord within the Alliance. In September, Russian drones already violated the airspace of Romania and Latvia. Given that this isn’t the first instance, the group known as the ‘Bucharest Nine’—comprising Romania, Bulgaria, Poland, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovakia, and Hungary—is calling for a tougher stance on Russia within NATO. This could lead to joint air defence systems shooting down Russian drones, but it also heightens the risk of confrontation between NATO and Russia,” the report states.
The second scenario involves a potential resurgence of Islamic terrorism, which could serve Putin’s interests if another wave of attacks were to strike the Western world. “Groups supported by Iran, Russia’s ally and a controller of various terrorist organizations in the Middle East, could facilitate such operations. British intelligence agency MI5 has already detected signs that Russia might be pursuing this perilous strategy,” the journalists report.
Another possible ‘October surprise’ from Putin could involve an escalation through the deployment of chemical weapons. American and British experts assert that Putin’s forces in Ukraine employed chloropicrin—a choking agent—in May.
“Such an escalation against Ukrainian soldiers would not only represent yet another violation of international law but also instil fear and terror within Ukraine. It could also signal a testing of so-called tactical nuclear weapons,” the German media outlet warns.
The fourth scenario revolves around disrupting Western communications. Recent sightings of Russian ships near transatlantic undersea cables have sparked concerns about the integrity of internet connections between the EU and the US. Should Putin succeed in temporarily disabling satellite communication, experts warn that the psychological fallout on Western society could be far greater than previously imagined.
The final scenario entails potential interference in Moldova and Georgia. “Crucial elections are set to take place in Moldova on October 20 and in Georgia on October 26. In both nations, the central question is whether the journey toward democratization—and eventual accession to the European Union—will continue. Meanwhile, Russia is waging extensive disinformation campaigns in both countries to hinder their progress toward the West. Pro-Putin parties, backed by Moscow, are exacerbating the situation by paying supporters for votes and resorting to physical threats against their opponents,” reports Redaktionsnetzwerk Deutschland.
While it remains uncertain whether any of these ‘October surprise’ scenarios will materialize, one thing is clear: the international community must act decisively to safeguard not only Ukraine but also its own nations.
