The prolonged debate about which countries might eventually join the EU has mainly focused on Balkan states such as Montenegro or Serbia. However, Russia’s full-scale invasion and its military policies have fundamentally altered this landscape. As a result, Ukraine and neighboring Moldova are swiftly emerging as candidates for EU membership, with official negotiations commencing yesterday. What statements were made, and what does the start of negotiations mean for Ukraine?
The initial phase of Ukraine’s EU accession negotiations commenced with the Intergovernmental Conference. Ukraine’s delegation, led by Deputy Prime Minister Olha Stefanishyna, engaged alongside ministers from all 27 EU member states. Deutsche Welle reported Stefanishyna’s pre-conference statement outlining Ukraine’s goal to complete preparations for EU accession by 2030. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky hailed the occasion as historic, marking Ukraine’s transition to substantive negotiations with the European Union for membership.
Reuters underscores that these negotiations provide Ukraine with a political impetus amid the ongoing conflict, although significant challenges lie ahead before it can formally join the bloc. “The ceremony in Luxembourg serves more as a symbol than a platform for concrete negotiations, which will commence in earnest only after the EU evaluates Ukrainian legislation to gauge compliance with EU standards,” the publication explains.
The German outlet Redaktionsnetzwerk Deutschland also highlights that the term “negotiations” can be somewhat misleading. It refers to the series of tasks that candidate countries must complete from the EU side to qualify for membership. “The primary objective is to harmonise national legal frameworks with EU legislation and align the economy and governance practices with EU standards. To simplify the process, these requirements are categorised into 35 chapters,” the article explains.
At the accession conference in Luxembourg, the initial step for Ukraine and Moldova was the introduction of fundamental principles to both countries. According to EU diplomats, it is anticipated that the first negotiation chapters will be initiated within the next 12 months. During this period, the EU Commission will conduct a screening of these chapters to evaluate how well the candidate country’s national legislation aligns with EU laws.
Earlier, Liubov Akulenko, Executive Director of the NGO “Ukrainian Centre for European Policy,” noted in an interview with The Ukrainian Week that Ukraine faces challenges rooted in its history: “Almost everywhere, we adapted European legislation through ‘Ukrainisation’ of European legislation—deviating from European norms because otherwise, parliament would not approve decisions.” Given these circumstances, Akulenko predicted that the evaluation of the Agreement’s implementation could fall below even 31%.
“For instance, Europeans insist on creating a specific table for legislative acts, with each article translated into English. Currently, based on my observations, even the ministry delegations’ requests do not include such tables. This suggests that they likely do not exist, nor do the personnel intended to work on them.
However, there is a reason for this: the European Commission has historically shown little interest in our activities related to the Agreement, as they did not consider us part of the EU. Today, with this perspective changed, they are demonstrating the seriousness of the situation. Therefore, it is uncertain how swiftly we can navigate through this bilateral screening process,” Akulenko explained to The Ukrainian Week.
Negotiations on Ukraine’s accession to the EU: when to expect membership?
Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba noted that following the conclusion of accession negotiations with the EU, Ukraine will be positioned three steps away from achieving full membership in the European Union. These steps include the European Commission’s assessment of successful negotiation outcomes and Ukraine’s alignment with accession criteria, the decision to sign the Agreement on Ukraine’s accession to the EU, and the subsequent ratification of this agreement by both EU member states’ parliaments and Ukraine, culminating in Ukraine’s full membership in the European Union.
Meanwhile, according to the Financial Times, substantive negotiations are scheduled to commence in 2025, coinciding with Poland’s assumption of the bloc’s presidency on January 1.
The terms of Ukraine’s accession to the EU remain highly uncertain, as noted by the German Redaktionsnetzwerk Deutschland. These terms hinge primarily on the progress made in reform efforts by candidate countries. For instance, negotiations for Turkey’s accession began in 2005 but have since been fully halted due to setbacks in upholding the rule of law. “Additionally, the opening and closing of the 35 negotiation chapters require unanimous decisions from all EU member states, posing a risk of potential blockage,” the publication emphasises.
A significant influencing factor in this process, especially concerning Ukraine, is Hungary. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán expressed his country’s stance during an interview with Funke media group newspapers, stating that while Hungary does not support Ukraine’s accession process, it refrains from outright blocking it. He also characterised the commencement of negotiations as a “politically motivated process.”
“First, we need to assess the implications of accepting a country at war with unclear borders,” remarked Orbán, whose country assumes the presidency of the EU Council on July 1. According to Redaktionsnetzwerk Deutschland, he also raised concerns about the impact of such a large country’s accession on EU agriculture. “We are now entering negotiations without clarity, which is concerning,” added the Hungarian politician.
Dr Ihor Petrenko, a political scientist and expert at the Analytical Center “United Ukraine,” highlights the challenges in predicting the timeline for Ukraine’s EU membership. “For instance, Poland, the Czech Republic, and Hungary took ten years, while Croatia completed it in eight,” he noted. “Ukraine, however, is advancing towards accession despite the challenges of wartime conditions. We are steadfastly meeting the commitments made at the outset of negotiations, which has been recognised by Ursula von der Leyen’s acknowledgement of our progress. This suggests that our advancement is fundamentally sound, and theoretically, membership could be achievable within five to six years.”
Simultaneously, as the expert underscores, it’s crucial to recognise that this process is bilateral, involving substantial efforts not only from candidate countries but also from the EU. Internal dynamics in countries like Hungary can also influence the pace of progress. Moreover, the EU prioritises economic stability and carefully evaluates the financial implications of admitting a new member state. New members often necessitate significant financial support to modernise their economies, infrastructure, and other sectors.
“Furthermore, as Dr Ihor Petrenko emphasised to The Ukrainian Week, ‘Once we become EU members, we will be eligible for subsidies that the European Union allocates to various sectors and countries.’ He points out, ‘Currently, Poland hosts the largest agricultural sector in the EU, which consequently receives the highest subsidies. Upon Ukraine’s accession to the EU, we will also benefit from these subsidies. Coordinating this involves expanding funds, recalculating allocations, and securing decisions among member states. It will also encompass migration issues and social adaptation because EU membership will bring questions about employment, social protection, and education.’ All of these aspects must navigate through the appropriate structures. Hence, the accession process poses challenges for the EU as well.”
“At the same time, it’s important to note that while there’s a current political decision for Ukraine and Moldova to join the EU, there may be political debates ahead. For instance, prior to the full-scale invasion, influential countries like Germany and France, as the ‘engines’ and leaders of the EU, were sceptical about expansion. Nevertheless, according to the expert, recent elections to the European Parliament and the appointment of key figures do not present obstacles for Ukraine.”
“I believe Ursula von der Leyen will be re-elected, and the structure of the European Parliament has seen minimal change. While right-wing political forces have gained ground, their primary focus will likely be on migration issues. Therefore, the EU’s enlargement policy remains unchanged,” says Dr Ihor Petrenko. “Public sentiments will depend more on internal changes within specific countries, such as significant shifts in political power or coalition disruptions. However, this is not the current situation.”
Simultaneously, Maria Mezentseva-Fedorenko, Deputy Chair of the Committee on Ukraine’s Integration into the EU and Head of the Ukrainian Delegation to the PACE, suggested that over the next five years, there is a good chance Ukraine can fulfil all negotiation chapters with the EU. She pointed out that the EU itself is evolving, with new visions emerging for its development that could support Ukraine’s path to European integration. She highlighted, “In particular, voters in the EU are insisting that we cannot adhere to outdated rules. For instance, when one member state obstructs majority decisions, especially concerning external financing, support packages, or the accession of new states to the EU.”
