On Tuesday, December 12, The European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) published a new pan-European survey on the EU expansion and the prospects of Ukraine and a number of Western Balkan states joining the union. The survey was timed to coincide with the meeting of the European Council taking place this week. It consolidates the data from six EU countries (Austria, Denmark, France, Germany, Poland, Romania, and France) and was commissioned by YouGov and Datapraxis, two well-known global public opinion and data institutions.
The recent survey confirmed that a large number of Europeans remain open to Ukraine’s potential admission to the EU. Across Europe, there is also considerable support for Moldova and Montenegro’s accession to the EU. At the same time, Turkey’s potential accession to the EU continues to face widespread opposition, and the applications of Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, Kosovo, North Macedonia, and Serbia are perceived rather coolly.
When it comes to the time frame of a potential expansion, there is a clear division between the ‘older’ and ‘new’ EU members, notes the ECFR press release. According to the survey, fewer than a third of citizens of the ‘older’ member states, such as Denmark (29%), Austria (28%), Germany (28%) and France (27%), agreed that the EU should be looking to admit new members “at this moment”, compared to approximately half of the respondents in the ‘newer’ member states – for example, 48% of respondent in Poland and 51% in Romania were in favour of enlargement.
The study identified a positive trend: reservations about the costs of admitting new members do not equate to immeidate rejection.
Among respondents who believe that Ukraine’s accession will not have a significant negative impact on EU security, 44% support accession, while only 27% believe it is not the right time for Ukraine to join the EU. Similarly, among those who think that Ukraine’s membership will not have a significant negative impact on the EU economy, 40% believe Ukraine should be allowed to join the EU (compared to 31% who disagree). “This is clear evidence of unwavering European support for Ukraine”, concluded the survey’s organisers.
ECFR researchers, Piotr Buras and Engjellushe Morina, note that although today the geopolitical arguments in favour of expansion are considerably stronger than 20 years ago, public opinion does not always align with this trend.
To address the situation, Piotr Buras and Engjellushe Morina call on European leaders to send a strong signal by giving the green light to accession negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova at this week’s European Council summit. They assert that there is an urgent need to “consolidate and secure the European space” and suggest developing a clear roadmap to implement institutional reforms that would dispel public concerns and push forward the enlargement process.
