The Ukrainian Week Digest: Russia transfers forces from the Finnish border to Ukraine, Ukraine says it’s working to identify Russians who executed Ukrainian POW, Putin is in Pyongyang, US wants to base F-16s in Ukraine

19 June 2024, 21:24

Yle: 80% of Russian forces from the border with Finland were transferred to Ukraine. A senior intelligence source in Finland reported to the Finnish publication Yle that Russia has transferred most of its military forces and equipment from positions previously concentrated on the Finnish border to Ukraine. Yle’s article also noted that “Russia is escalating threats of a third world war against NATO countries, yet there is minimal readiness for conflict in proximity to Finland.” Despite Russia’s claims of troop reinforcements, military barracks and bases near the Finnish border remain largely deserted. “Approximately 80 per cent of equipment and personnel have been redirected to the war in Ukraine,” disclosed a senior Finnish military intelligence source to Yle, whose identity remains confidential due to their official position. Similar depletions are evident at Russian bases elsewhere, except in the Moscow region, where the impact of the war on personnel and armaments has been less pronounced. Based on intelligence and recent satellite imagery, it is clear that Russia has deployed a substantial amount of its operational armaments to the front line. Yle’s investigation has documented significant changes at the nearby Russian bases, revealing a visible partial withdrawal of Russian forces. The recent satellite imagery obtained by Yle covers all major Russian bases and barracks in the nearby region relevant to Finland, primarily during May. The most noteworthy transformation occurred at the Petrozavodsk equipment depot, where a new equipment hall was constructed in May.

Russian forces kill another Ukrainian POW; Ukrainian intelligence identifies perpetrators of May war crime. Ukrainian Prosecutor General Andriy Kostin addressed the brutal murder of a Ukrainian defender in the Donetsk region, highlighting the identification of the victim and the ongoing investigation into the Russian commanders responsible for the atrocity. He noted that this incident highlights the blatant disregard for international law by Russian forces, a point Kostin emphasized as central to Russia’s state policy. He urged global leaders to understand the consequences of engaging with President Putin, who allows such barbaric acts to happen.

Earlier today, the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine (GUR) announced that it had already identified the Russian killers responsible for executing four Ukrainian prisoners of war in another incident in the Zaporizhzhia region. “In late May 2024, near the settlement of Robotyne, Russian servicemen committed another war crime by shooting Ukrainian prisoners of war,” the statement said.

A video captured the execution, showing four unarmed Ukrainian soldiers surrendering with their hands raised before being forced to lie face down and shot at close range by the Russians. Experts from Ukraine’s GUR identified the perpetrators as members of the 70th Motorised Rifle Regiment (military unit 71718) of the 42nd Motorised Rifle Division of the 58th Army, Southern District of the Russian Armed Forces. The regiment is based in Shali, Chechnya, and was commanded at the time by Lieutenant Colonel Yuriy Mairebekovich Abayev, with the call sign “Buffalo.” Additionally, servicemen of the 70th Motorised Rifle Regiment may also be implicated in the killing of more Ukrainian prisoners of war later in May 2024. Intercepted radio communications from the 70th Regiment reveal a Russian assault company commander ordering his subordinates to shoot Ukrainian soldiers.

Putin’s visit to Pyongyang. In an international development, Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un signed a new defence agreement during a meeting in Pyongyang, signalling a notable strengthening of relations between Russia and North Korea. During discussions with Putin, Kim declared that the North Korean government “fully supports and stands in solidarity with the Russian government, army, and people in their execution of the special military operation,” pertaining to the conflict in Ukraine. Kim asserts that the war persists “to safeguard sovereignty, security interests, and territorial integrity.” The meeting also involved discussions on common strategic interests, highlighting Putin’s strategic manoeuvre as he seeks support from North Korea despite its status as the world’s 198th-ranked economy. Former CIA analyst Sue Mi Terry described this move as indicative of Putin’s diminishing global standing and reliance on pariah states, as reported by Sky News. According to representatives of the Russian government, the new treaty is allegedly an update of the 1961 agreement, but with certain changes due to the different geopolitical situations in the world. Although the full text of the treaty has not been published yet, Yuri Ushakov, an aide to the President of the Russian Federation, stated that the treaty includes provisions for mutual assistance in the event of a potential ‘aggression’ against one of the countries. Based on Putin’s remarks, additional agreements for enhanced military cooperation and arms transfers could also be signed later. The Russian president also indicated openness to military-technical cooperation with North Korea under the new document. Media in North Korea and Russia have expectedly been portraying the treaty as ‘entirely peaceful,’ a sentiment echoed by Kim Jong-un during Putin’s visit to Pyongyang.

CNN: debate is ongoing on Ukraine’s NATO membership. Meanwhile, according to CNN’s report, the United States and its allies, particularly the United Kingdom, have been actively debating Ukraine’s NATO membership ahead of the alliance’s 75th anniversary summit in Washington. While US and German officials propose a “bridge” to NATO membership, several Eastern and Central European nations, along with the UK, prefer a more definitive “irreversible path” for Ukraine, CNN reports. This debate is crucial as it signals NATO’s stance towards Ukraine and Russia. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stressed the importance of taking concrete steps to integrate Ukraine into NATO during the summit, yet some NATO members are cautious due to Ukraine’s ongoing anti-corruption challenges. This tension underscores broader geopolitical struggles and highlights the need for a unified NATO strategy in response to Russian aggression. These developments shed light on the evolving dynamics of the conflict in Ukraine, international responses to Russian aggression, and the changing alliances and strategies that are shaping the global political landscape.

Jake Sullivan says the United States plans to base F-16 fighter jets in Ukraine. In an interview with PBS, White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan stated that the United States plans to base the F-16 fighter jets inside Ukraine. He noted that this move is part of a security agreement between the US and Ukraine, signed by Presidents Joe Biden and Volodymyr Zelensky. Sullivan noted, “The plan is to put the F-16s in Ukraine. The bilateral security agreement that the president and President Zelenskyy signed reinforced this point, stating that we want to help Ukraine have this capability. It should be a capability based in Ukraine.” Sullivan also highlighted that in case of a threat, Ukraine could use US-provided air defence systems, including the ability to destroy Russian aircraft, even those within Russian airspace. “We are permitting Ukrainians to attack Russian forces using Russia as a sanctuary in the areas where on the battlefield they are attacking from inside Russia with artillery, with other ground-based munitions. Also, and we have made this clear — and we have seen over the course of the past two years Ukraine do this — that they can use air defence systems, including those supplied by the United States, to take Russian planes out of the sky, even if those Russian planes are in Russian airspace, if they’re about to fire into Ukrainian airspace.”

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