ISW: Putin rejects any meaningful ceasefire negotiations. Russian President Vladimir Putin explicitly rejected any meaningful negotiations on a ceasefire agreement, demanding Ukraine’s “irreversible” demilitarisation as a precondition for any such agreement. According to the Institute for the Study of War, Putin’s comments at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Astana, Kazakhstan, on July 4 signalled a hardline stance, dismissing any potential mediators or Ukrainian governing bodies as legitimate negotiating partners. This move effectively eliminates any realistic process for negotiating a ceasefire agreement. Putin’s insistence on demilitarization underscores his strategy to outlast Western support for Ukraine and win a war of attrition. This approach further highlights Putin’s confidence in Russia’s ability to endure prolonged war and exert pressure on Ukraine until it capitulates to Russian demands. The Russian president’s unwavering stance signifies a grim outlook for any near-term resolution to the ongoing war.
Orbán’s visit to Moscow; EU’s reaction. Hungary’s Viktor Orbán’s visit to Moscow took place exclusively within the framework of bilateral relations between Hungary and Russia. As emphasized by the EEAS Press Team, Hungary, currently holding the EU Council’s rotating presidency, did not represent the EU during this visit. The EU maintains a firm position against official contact with President Putin due to Russia’s aggression in Ukraine. Borrell also highlighted that Putin is under an International Criminal Court arrest warrant for his role in the forced deportation of Ukrainian children. The Hungarian Prime Minister’s actions have stirred controversy within the EU, as Orbán’s close ties with Putin have often conflicted with the broader European stance on Russia. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala, and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk have already responded to Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán’s meeting with Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin. “Appeasement will not stop Putin. Only unity and determination will pave the path to a comprehensive, just and lasting peace in Ukraine,” wrote Von der Leyen on X. Petr Fiala added: “Viktor Orbán does not represent our or EU interests in Moscow. Nor does he have any mandate to negotiate on our behalf. The Czech position is clear: Putin is the aggressor, we stand with Ukraine.”
Narendra Modi’s first visit to Russia since the Russian invasion. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi makes his first visit to Russia since the invasion of Ukraine, navigating the balance between maintaining historical ties with Moscow and fostering closer security relations with Western nations. The Japan Times reports that while Russia remains a key supplier of discounted oil and weapons to India, its growing dependence on China and isolation from the West have strained this partnership. Modi’s visit aims to assess Russia’s stance on the Ukraine war and explore ways to evolve the India-Russia relationship amidst these pressures. This diplomatic balancing act is crucial for India, which seeks to bolster its defence capabilities while avoiding entanglement in the geopolitical tensions surrounding the Ukraine war. Modi’s discussions with Putin will likely address these complex dynamics, striving to maintain India’s strategic autonomy and regional influence.
Germany delivers new Patriots to Ukraine. German Ambassador to Ukraine Martin Jaeger announced the arrival of the third Patriot air defence system from Germany in Ukraine. Reporting through his Twitter account, Jaeger highlighted that this system will enhance the protection of Ukrainian civilians and infrastructure. Ukrainian crews have completed the necessary training in Germany to operate the system, marking a significant step in bolstering Ukraine’s air defence capabilities. The deployment of these advanced defence systems is a crucial development in Ukraine’s ongoing efforts to protect itself against aerial threats. This continued support from Germany represents a strong commitment to aiding Ukraine in its defence against ongoing aggression, significantly improving the country’s defensive infrastructure and capabilities.
Russia’s Levada Center says nearly a third of Russians support a nuclear strike on Ukraine. A study conducted by the Russian analytical centre, “Levada Center”, reveals significant insights into public opinion regarding the war in Ukraine and the use of nuclear weapons. According to the survey, 10% of respondents “definitely” support the use of nuclear weapons in the war, while another 24% consider it “somewhat appropriate.” This level of support is the highest recorded since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, with the share of supporters of nuclear escalation increasing by five percentage points over the past year. Despite this, the majority, 52% of respondents, oppose the use of nuclear weapons. Additionally, the survey shows that 77% of surveyed Russians support Russia’s war against Ukraine, with 44% “definitely” personally supporting the actions of the Russian armed forces. The overall level of support for the actions of the Russian armed forces in Ukraine remains high, with 44% “unconditionally” supporting and 33% “somewhat” supporting, while only 17% of Russians do not support these actions. The highest levels of support for the Russian army’s actions are seen among respondents aged 55 and older (84%); those who can barely afford clothing and durable goods (both 78%); individuals who believe the country is moving in the right direction (86%); those who approve of President Vladimir Putin’s performance (84%); and those who trust information from television (87%).
