The West’s hesitance to fully address Ukraine’s military needs could have dire consequences. Can our allies increase their support to the necessary levels? As Ukraine’s defenders display extraordinary resilience against a significantly stronger enemy, the pressing question is whether Western allies can sustain and expand their support to achieve a decisive victory. Meanwhile, Russia’s leaders remain confident that time is on their side, anticipating that Western resolve will eventually wane.
Is time on Russia’s side?
The third year of the full-scale Russo-Ukrainian war has transitioned into a grinding war of attrition. On one hand, we are witnessing the remarkable heroism of Ukraine’s defence forces, who continue to engage an adversary that overwhelmingly surpasses them in nearly every measurable aspect. Yet, it is equally clear that the support from Ukraine’s allies has been insufficient, often marred by delays and limitations on how it can be deployed.
Russian leaders, however, remain convinced that time works in their favour. Since the onset of the conflict, Moscow has operated under the assumption that Ukraine’s allies would eventually grow weary of the prolonged military engagement, paving the way for the invader to secure its objectives. Even the vast economic superiority of the West over Russia has failed to alter the Kremlin’s entrenched belief.
While Europe, the U.S., and other partners are only now beginning to catch up to Moscow in terms of arms production, in the long run, only China could emerge as a serious contender to their collective economic might—not Russia. Nevertheless, to what degree could Ukraine’s allies already be providing the necessary support for the nation to withstand and push back against the aggressor?
What is the current balance of power?
According to World Bank data, Ukraine’s weighted Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is over ten times smaller than Russia’s. This disparity puts Ukraine at a considerable disadvantage in a direct confrontation. Additionally, Russia’s population is nearly four times larger, and its per capita GDP is approximately double that of Ukraine. On the other hand, the combined GDP of the U.S., EU, and UK is about nine times larger than Russia’s. Even excluding the U.S., the UK and EU together boast an economy five times the size of Russia’s. In economic terms, the collective West surpasses Russia in a proportion comparable to how Russia exceeds Ukraine.
The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute reports that in 2023, Moscow allocated 5.9% of its GDP to military expenditure, while Ukraine devoted a staggering 37%. Consequently, Russia’s military budget eclipsed Ukraine’s by roughly $150 billion. Let’s assume that our allies are required to cover this shortfall. That $150 billion would represent just 0.26% of the combined GDP of the UK, EU, and U.S. If we focus solely on the UK and EU, this figure rises slightly to 0.48% of their GDP.
Now, if we assume an additional 30% is needed to offset the shortage of manpower, the required aid would climb to $300 billion. This would equate to 0.51% of the combined GDP of the UK, EU, and U.S., or 0.96% of the GDP of just the UK and EU.
Invest, not spend
Our calculations are, of course, highly approximate. On one hand, Russia has the capacity to further escalate its military spending. On the other hand, it is important to note that not all of Russia’s defence budget is allocated exclusively to the conflict in Ukraine. Additionally, Ukraine benefits from significant contributions from other nations, including Canada, Norway, Japan, and several others.
Nevertheless, these figures offer a clear view of the broader landscape. Russia’s vast expenditure on the war appears minor when set against the formidable economic power of the West. This remains true even when the equation excludes the U.S., the world’s largest economy.
Allies should regard their support for Ukraine not merely as aid but as a strategic investment to avert far greater costs down the line. There is no doubt that if Russia achieves its objectives in Ukraine, its aggression will inevitably push further westward. Failing to provide sufficient financial backing for Ukraine today will soon force allies to face a far graver consequence: the loss of their own citizens’ lives. As our calculations suggest, the relatively modest outlay required from these large economies now could avert catastrophic events in the near future.
The West, alongside other supporters of Ukraine, possesses the capacity to become a reliable foundation, supplying Ukraine with the resources it needs. This is the surest route to securing a lasting peace in Europe, and it will send a clear message to Russia that it cannot sustain the financial burden of its war. For now, Moscow shows little inclination to retreat. However, the West’s demonstrable commitment to a prolonged struggle will, in the end, prove to be one of the decisive factors that alters the course of thinking within the Kremlin.
