The British Ministry of Defence reported that recent attacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine have resulted in the disabling of at least 10% of Russian oil refineries’ capacities. Russia is unlikely to be able to defend against further strikes on the oil refining industry. The Ukrainian media outlet Ukrayinska Pravda reported that its sources in the Security Service of Ukraine confirmed 12 successful attacks on oil refineries in Russia recently.
British analysts also reiterated suggestions that these strikes could have caused substantial financial losses for Russia, impacting its domestic fuel market. Major repairs may take a substantial amount of time and require significant expenses. “Sanctions are highly likely increasing the time and cost of sourcing replacement equipment,” the report suggests.
The British Ministry of Defence also brought up the statements made by a representative of the Russian Ministry of Energy outlining plans to deploy the Pantsir air defence missile system to safeguard its oil refineries. However, given the size and scope of Russia’s energy sector, it appears unlikely that all vulnerable facilities can be adequately protected, as the British ministry concluded. Furthermore, British intelligence points out that some of the farthest targets in Russia, which were subject to attacks, are situated approximately 900 kilometres from Ukraine, demonstrating the operational range of Ukrainian drones.
At the same time, during a recent briefing at The White House, John Kirby, the U.S. President’s advisor on communications in national security, addressed the article in the Financial Times regarding the alleged U.S. urging of Ukraine to cease attacks on Russian oil refineries. The article suggested that Washington is concerned that such actions might trigger retaliatory strikes and result in a worldwide fuel price surge, especially in the United States. It was implied that this situation could potentially harm Joe Biden’s electoral chances.
Kirby clarified that these allegations are untrue. However, he emphasised that Washington does not endorse strikes on Russian territory. When asked to comment on the article by the FT journalists, Kirby stated that he would not discuss claims made by the press. “I’m not going to speak to the specifics in that press reporting. The only thing I would tell you is what I’ve said before: We do not encourage or enable the Ukrainian military to conduct strikes inside Russia.”
