In a new semiweekly update on the Russian invasion of Ukraine, The Ukrainian Week summarises recent developments on the frontline, attacks on Kyiv, and reports on the prospects of the Russian-Ukrainian war.
- Germany’s Bild on Russian offers of negotiations: “They are planning no ceasefire”. Russia plans to establish full control over the Donetsk and Luhansk regions by the end of 2024 and advance to the Oskil River in the Kharkiv region, intending to continue the full-scale war until 2026. According to the German newspaper, the Russian government anticipates a significant decrease in support for Ukraine from the West. Russia will likely attempt to simulate peace negotiations, trying to convince the global community that Russia has “peaceful intentions.” In reality, the Kremlin has no interest in an actual ceasefire and is developing a new medium-term plan for the war in Ukraine. It is reported that Russia intends to continue advancing westward to the Dnipro River by the end of 2026, capturing a significant portion of the Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv regions, including the cities of Kharkiv, Dnipro, and Zaporizhzhia.
- UK Ministry of Defence report: In early December 2023, the newly formed 104th Guards Airborne Division of the Russian Airborne Troops likely suffered extremely high losses and failed to accomplish the tasks assigned to it in the Kherson region. Analysts cite reports that the division was poorly supported by aviation and artillery, while many servicemen were likely inexperienced. According to British intelligence, the operation took place after the division joined Russia’s Dnepr Group of Forces and its attempt to dislodge the Ukrainian bridgehead near the village of Krynky on the east bank of the Dnipro. After the incident, Russian military bloggers called on the commander of the operational-tactical group ‘Dnepr,’ Lieutenant General Mikhail Teplinskiy, to resign. According to intelligence reports, this is a blow to Teplinskiy’s reputation as “one of the most capable” Russian field commanders.
- RFE/RL on reported explosions in Crimea: On December 15, Russia’s Ministry of Defence announced that 26 drones attacked the Russian-occupied Crimea, Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) reports. According to the report, the attack occurred between 20:30 and 22:30 local time; the Russian ministry claimed that all the drones were shot down. However, the RFE/RL editorial team could not independently corroborate these statements—reporters from the Crimea. Realities, the RFE/RL project, reported hearing explosions in several areas across Crimea. Russian occupation administration reported air defence sirens in Sevastopol and the Simferopol region, as well as in the area of Henichesk.
- Another kamikaze drones launch site reported in Crimea: Ukrainian media outlet Suspilne reports that Russians started launching Shahed kamikaze drones from the area of Balaklava, south of Sevastopol, in the occupied Crimea, targeting Ukrainian territory. This is already the fifth launch site. Yuriy Ignat, the spokesperson for Ukraine’s Air Force, said that the Russian occupation forces chose a new launch site for kamikaze drones in order to complicate their detection by the Ukrainian air defence.
- Ukraine’s Ground Forces spokesperson: Russia is redeploying its reserves to the Kupyansk direction. Russians are allegedly trying to compensate for the earlier losses. The Russian army seeks to capture the village of Synkivka in the Kharkiv region and establish a foothold for the future occupation of Kupyansk and other territories in the western direction. As of December 15, Ukrainian Defence Forces liquidated 258 Russian military personnel and destroyed 14 military vehicles in the Kupyansk direction.
- The Russian occupiers are unable to secure their positions around Avdiivka, said Vitaliy Barabash, the head of the Avdiivka Military Civil Administration. Mostly, current gains achieved by the Russians are a slightly expanded “grey zone”. Barabash also added that the Russian occupation forces carry out several dozens of assaults a day in the Avdiivka direction. According to him, the majority of these attacks are so-called “cannon fodder” attacks with well-trained personnel units not taking part in frontal attacks. On December 15, another five civilians were evacuated from the city. There are still 1,230 people remaining in Avdiivka.
- Ukraine’s General Staff update: On December 15, The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine released another update on the Russian invasion. Russians continue employing terror tactics, conducting missile and aviation strikes, and launching numerous strikes against civilian targets. Russians launched air strikes in Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions. Over 100 populated areas in the Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, and Mykolaiv regions came under artillery fire. Ukrainian Armed Forces reported that on Friday alone, there were over 110 combat clashes with Russian occupation forces. Ukraine’s General Staff reports that Russia lost 14 tanks, nearly 40 armoured vehicles, and over 1,000 soldiers in a single day.
- Another Russian attack on the Ukrainian capital: in the early morning hours of December 16, Russian forces attacked Kyiv for the sixth time this month. The air raid alarm in the capital lasted for over four hours. The Kyiv City Military Administration reported that the Russian army attacked the Ukrainian capital using kamikaze drones. The drones attacked in groups and came from different directions. The Kyiv City Military Administration compared Russia’s December attacks to the tactics they used in May 2023, when Russians combined drones and different types of missiles, including Iskander, Kinzhal missiles and Shahed kamikaze drones.
