Biden administration announces more security aid for Ukraine. The US Department of Defense announced a $275 million security assistance package for Ukraine, part of the surge in aid President Biden pledged on September 26 to bolster Ukraine’s defence capabilities. This marks the Biden Administration’s 70th equipment delivery from DoD inventories since August 2021 under the Presidential Drawdown Authority. The package includes HIMARS ammunition, 155mm and 105mm artillery shells, mortar rounds, anti-tank weapons like Javelins and AT-4s, unmanned aerial systems, and protective equipment for chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear threats. It also covers small arms, demolitions, spare parts, training, and transportation.
Russia accused of spreading false attack warnings as embassies prepare for possible airstrike. Ukrainian intelligence has accused Russia of orchestrating a large-scale information and psychological operation against Ukraine. According to officials, Russia is disseminating social media messages, purportedly from Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence (HUR MO), warning of an “especially massive” missile and bomb strike on Ukraine on November 20. Ukrainian authorities have dismissed these claims as fabricated. At the same time, the United States Embassy in Kyiv issued a statement indicating it had received “specific information about a potential major air attack on November 20.” As a precaution, the embassy announced it would close temporarily, instructing staff to shelter in place. Subsequently, reports emerged that the embassies of Spain, Italy, and Greece in Kyiv would also suspend operations temporarily on Wednesday for similar reasons. According to NV, the closures are unrelated to recent updates in Russia’s nuclear doctrine and instead address the immediate threat of combined drone and missile attacks. Ukrainian authorities suspect Russia’s stockpiled arsenal, including Kalibr cruise missiles, signals plans for further large-scale bombardments.
Ukraine targets Russian arsenals in deep strikes. Recent reports indicate that Ukraine may be extending its military operations into Russian territory. One notable incident involved a nighttime drone attack on the 13th GRAU Arsenal in Kotovo, Novgorod region, a facility used for ammunition storage, as reported by Russian oppositional Telegram news channel ASTRA. This comes on the heels of confirmed strikes on another Russian arsenal in Bryansk, reportedly carried out with long-range ATACMS missiles. While local authorities have acknowledged some damage to residential areas, they have sought to downplay the overall impact of the attacks. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces appear to be refining their offensive tactics, demonstrating a growing capability to hit Russian military targets deep inside its borders while continuing to address threats closer to home.
The Economist: “Fighting in Ukraine may subside in 2025”. Speculation about potential peace talks between Ukraine and Russia in 2025 is growing, fueled by anticipated resource shortages and increasing international pressures. According to The Economist, both Ukraine and Russia could face exhaustion, leading to negotiations influenced by the United States and the reduction of Western military support. The analysis suggests that Ukraine’s declining aid, including a $61 billion U.S. package set to run out by 2025, combined with Europe’s limited defence production, could set the stage for a “semi-frozen conflict.” Under such a scenario, Ukraine might be forced to cede some territories captured by Russia in exchange for security guarantees, though full NATO membership remains uncertain. The Economist predicts that the intensity of combat will likely decrease once talks begin.
