The Ukrainian Week/Tyzhden summarises key events and statements made on January 19 regarding the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine, as well as the security risks in the world.
- Russia plans a new large-scale offensive against Ukraine. Financial Times reported, citing representatives of Ukrainian security forces, that Russia is likely planning a new large-scale offensive against Ukraine as early as this summer. According to sources, the Russians aim to fully capture the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia regions. Journalists also do not rule out the possibility of occupying Kharkiv or Kyiv. U.S. intelligence believes that Putin’s ultimate goal is the conquest of Ukraine and its subordination. In recent months, Russia has received assistance from North Korea and increased the production of weapons and ammunition. In the U.S., it is considered that Ukrainian forces may continue to identify weak points in the Russian defence and exploit them when an opportunity arises. Additionally, Kyiv may conduct long-range air attacks targeting the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation and airfields in Crimea.
- NATO’s Admiral Rob Bauer: “Civilians in the West must be prepared for a conflict with Russia”. Sky News reported that the head of NATO’s military committee, Admiral Rob Bauer, said that the civilian population of Western countries should prepare for the possible onset of war with Russia.”We have to realise it’s not a given that we are in peace. And that’s why we [NATO forces] are preparing for a conflict with Russia. But the discussion is much wider. It is also the industrial base and also the people that have to understand they play a role”, said Bauer. He emphasised that Sweden did the right thing by urging the population to prepare for war. Previously, Bauer stated that Western countries must prepare for an era when anything can happen at any moment, including war. Earlier, on January 8, Sweden’s Minister of Civil Defence, Karl-Oscar Bolin, stated that there could be war in Sweden, and all Swedes should act to strengthen the country’s resilience. This sentiment was echoed by the Supreme Commander of the Swedish Armed Forces, Micael Bydén, who called the situation “extremely serious”. Bydén stressed the need to move beyond mere words and understanding to take concrete actions in response to the unfolding circumstances. Additionally, despite being on the brink of joining NATO, Sweden has yet to become a full member. Bydén believes that expedited NATO membership would benefit the country’s security.
- Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania will build defence fortifications on the borders with Russia and Belarus. On Friday, January 19, the Ministers of Defence of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania approved the construction of fortifications on the borders with Russia and Belarus. The agreement, signed in Riga, outlines plans for the three Baltic states to build defensive structures to deter and, if necessary, defend against potential military threats in the coming years. Estonia will construct approximately 600 fortified bunkers along the border. As stated by Kaido Tiitus, adviser to the deputy secretary general at the Ministry of Defence, the line of bunkers will run through Ida-Viru County, bordering the Leningrad Region and along the border with the Pskov Region. Each bunker will accommodate up to 10 military personnel and be able to withstand direct hits from 152-millimetre calibre projectiles. The construction cost is estimated to be around 60 million euros. Estonian Defence Minister Hanno Pevkur noted that the Russian invasion of Ukraine showed that, in addition to technology, ammunition, and military personnel, physical defensive structures on the border are crucial to protect Estonia in the first hours of a potential invasion. Pevkur stated that the purpose of these defensive structures is to prevent military conflicts in the Baltic region and to ensure the safety of the Estonian people.
- Budanov: military strikes against the enemy in Crimea must continue. Kyrylo Budanov, the Chief of Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate, emphasised the need to sustain pressure on Russia, including Crimea. In a material for the Financial Times, he confirmed that the ongoing special operations conducted by the Ukrainian military in the occupied peninsula will continue. Budanov stressed the importance of maintaining air attacks on Crimea, utilising maritime strike drones, and conducting covert special operations. “Our units [last year] repeatedly entered Crimea,” noted the head of Ukrainian intelligence. Additionally, Budanov underscored that one of the priorities of these missions is to disrupt the logistics of the Russian Armed Forces in the occupied Crimea.
- Ukrainian intelligence: “Explosions at Russian military facilities disrupt their logistics”. Andriy Yusov, a representative of the Main Intelligence Directorate, said that explosions and fires at the military facilities on Russian territory are complicating logistics for the occupation forces, disrupting supply schedules, and offering additional opportunities, such as extra time and manoeuvring possibilities for the Ukrainian military. On January 19, Yusov said that there were reports of explosions on Russian territory. “Such incidents regularly occur at military facilities within the Russian Federation. It is evident that when an explosion happens at an oil base actively supplying fuel to the occupation forces, it complicates logistics for the occupiers”, explained Yusov. When asked whether Ukrainian drones can cover a distance of 900 kilometres, the representative of the Main Intelligence Directorate stated, “We cannot confirm or deny. However, Ukrainian drones can cover even greater distances”. Earlier, on January 19, drones attacked the Tambov Powder Plant in the Russian city of Kotovsk. This facility manufactures gunpowder for weapons and ammunition, according to a source in the Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR). Explosions at this plant previously occurred in June and November 2023. The distance from the Tambov region to Ukraine is over 700 kilometres. Additionally, Russia claimed that on Friday, January 19, a Ukrainian drone targeted an oil storage depot in the Bryansk region in Russia. The drone struck the city Klintsy, located 60 kilometres from the Ukrainian border, setting four oil reservoirs on fire.
- CNN: Western intelligence believes that war in Ukraine will continue for at least another two years. It is expected that Ukraine will spend this year strengthening its defence-industrial base and rebuilding its Armed Forces in anticipation of more active military actions in 2025, according to a U.S. official. He stated that this strategy is likely to be a focal point for Russia as well. “That’s why continued Western support is so crucial, as next year will determine how events unfold in 2025 and possibly beyond,” the source said. According to a U.S. military official based in Europe, American and Western officials do not expect significant victories on the battlefield for Ukraine and Russia in 2024. “Both sides are too depleted in terms of troops and equipment to see significant shifts in 2024. Ukrainians have discussed 2025 as a ‘more realistic option for creating a fresh offensive,'” said the military official. However, in the short term, U.S. intelligence representatives do not believe that a reduction in funding from the United States will have a significant impact on military operations in Ukraine. Russia is trying to regroup, providing Ukraine with some time, according to individuals familiar with assessments. But in the long term, the absence of American assistance may allow Moscow to regain momentum by increasing arms supplies and leveraging support from Iran and North Korea, said one of the sources.
- EU Parliament push to strip Hungary of voting rights. In the resolution passed on Thursday, with 345 votes in favour, 104 against, and 29 abstentions, Members of the European Parliament expressed profound concern about the ongoing erosion of democracy, the rule of law, and fundamental rights in Hungary. This concern is particularly directed at the recently adopted “National Sovereignty Protection” package, likened to Russia’s controversial “Foreign Agents Law.” Additionally, MEPs condemned Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s actions, highlighting his December decision to block a crucial vote on the long-term EU budget, including aid for Ukraine. They characterised this move as disregarding the EU’s strategic interests and the principle of cooperation. The resolution calls on the European Council to assess whether Hungary has engaged in “serious and persistent breaches of the values of the EU” under Article 7(2) of the Treaty on European Union. The European Parliament also doubts Hungary’s ability to fulfil its EU Council duties in the latter half of 2024. It warns that if the position of the President of the European Council remains vacant, these responsibilities may fall on the Prime Minister of Hungary. Notably, on January 9, Finnish MEP Petri Sarvamaa proposed invoking Article 7(2) of the Treaty on the European Union against Hungary. This procedure allows for suspending certain rights, including the ability to vote in the EU Council, for a state which was caught repeatedly violating EU values. Sarvamaa announced that he had secured the necessary 120 votes for the proposal within three days only.
- Discussions on 13th EU sanctions package against Russia. EU countries have initiated discussions on the 13th sanctions package against Russia in response to its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. According to reports from Bloomberg and AFP, its approval is expected before the second anniversary of the invasion on February 24. The anticipated sanctions list includes new individuals and legal entities, and additional trade restrictions and measures to combat sanctions evasion are expected. Bloomberg reported that on January 17, the European Council discussed the new package at the ambassadorial level of member states. The agency notes that approving the new package by February 24 will be challenging, given that the work on the previous 12th sanctions package lasted over two months. No specific proposals have been reported yet. A key provision in the 12th sanctions package, approved on December 18, was a phased ban on importing Russian diamonds. Additional measures were also introduced to counter sanctions evasion through third countries.
