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28 May, 2013 10:00   ▪  

Yegor Vasylyev: the regime lacks convinced supporters who'd show determination in pursuing their beliefs

The mood of protests across the country are higher than in times preceding the Orange Revolution, Yegor Vasylyev, analyst specialising in politics and transition of post-Soviet states, notes in his article on The New Eastern Europe.

“Demands such as the announcement of mayoral elections in Kyiv, “complex” and secondary in terms of their potential to influence the situation in the country, do not suffice for the public. But once it comes to the simple but most meaningful question of who will lead the country further, a manifest disdain to its will is likely to trigger really massive events.

The regime lacks convinced supporters. Its electorate consists of de-ideologised, region-bounded voters, who are used to the patrimonial rule of the corrupt elite, as well as dismal social and economic conditions, who have never shown determination in pursuing any beliefs. This diminishes the probability of violent confrontation between the parts of the country, but increases the risk of their active instigation," expert claims. 

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Vasylyev believes that Viktor Yanukovych’s situation is substantively different from ones of Alyaksandr Lukashenka and Vladimir Putin.

“The two have received enough public support at elections to go on in making it overwhelming. But the sociological analysis shows that Yanukovych is incapable of securing it. He can only stay in office through schemes such as changing the constitution, the system of governance and model of the presidential elections, or bold election fraud. If the opposition stays united and genuine in their aim to beat Viktor Yanukovych in less than two years left of his presidency, he will sooner or later face a dilemma on whether to cross the line in order to stay in the office. The decision he ends up taking will be at a high price for Ukraine.” 

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