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24 May, 2013 10:00   ▪  

Goldman Sachs: financial problems may push Ukraine to agree IMF loan till September

Ukraine may agree on an International Monetary Fund loan by September because of a wide current-account gap and limited access to global financial markets, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc., reports Bloomberg.

“The current-account deficit is likely to come in at around 8 percent of gross domestic product, or $12 billion to $14 billion,” Andrew Matheny, a Moscow-based analyst at Goldman said.

“This would bring reserves from the current $25 billion down to $13 billion to $15 billion, in our view an unsustainably-low level.”

Ukraine will probably sign its delayed Association Agreement with the European Union this year and may succeed in renegotiating a natural gas supply pact with Russia, which could save the government about $2 billion a year, Goldman Sachs representative stated.

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The IMF mission visited Ukraine from March 27 till April 10. Earlier, Ukraine’s Finance Minister Yuriy Kolobov stated that Ukraine was optimistic about signing the agreement with the IMF to resume the USD 15bn lending in the near future.

Meanwhile, IMF’s Max Alier stated that assistance to Ukraine will depend on whether it meets IMF’s economic requirements. On May 23, the IMF stated that the date of the next visit to Ukraine has not been set yet. 

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