Austrian political scientist Gustav Gressel, a research fellow at the National Defence Academy in Vienna, spoke with The Ukrainian Week about what to expect after the collapse of the German coalition, whether support for Ukraine might shift, and how the U.S. election results could now impact developments in Germany.
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— The dismissal of Finance Minister Christian Lindner effectively forces Olaf Scholz to call a vote of no confidence, planned for January 15. If the chancellor loses, early elections could take place as soon as March. How likely is this scenario, and what challenges does it present?
— Yes, I believe it will happen. The German Constitution imposes limits on the no-confidence vote. If Merz (the leader of the opposition Christian Democratic Union, Friedrich Merz — Ed.) or parliament as a whole calls for such a vote, they’re limited to a constructive no-confidence vote. In other words, they must propose an alternative government and vote in a new administration to replace the current one. This, however, is unlikely, as forming a coalition with two other parties would be difficult. The chancellor himself can initiate a standard no-confidence vote, but only the president holds the power to dissolve parliament and call for early elections.
Ultimately, the decision lies with Steinmeier and Scholz. Both are members of the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD), so they’re careful to avoid moves that could harm the party. With the SPD’s polling numbers low, they need time to mount a proper campaign. This is what they’re aiming for, which is why they’ve delayed the no-confidence vote.
— Early elections could potentially bring a new government to power, led by the centre-right Christian Democratic Union. How might this affect support for Ukraine? Could we expect increased backing?
– That will largely depend on who they form a coalition with. In recent months, the Social Democratic Party of Germany has shifted back to a pacifist, Russia-friendly position, particularly after appointing Matthias Miersch, a supporter of former Chancellor Gerhard Schröder, as party secretary. (After leaving office, Schröder worked for several years in Russian energy companies and is still considered a close ally of Putin. — Ed.).
However, this could change if Scholz loses and the party elects a new leader, such as Boris Pistorius, who would adopt a firmer stance on Russia. The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) has a strong base of supporters who prefer the Social Democrats over the Greens, including key figures like Markus Söder, Armin Laschet, and Carsten Linnemann.
But will the CDU-SPD coalition have a majority in parliament? Will they need a third party to govern? Could the Free Democratic Party return to parliament? All of these questions remain uncertain, but they will have a significant impact on decisions regarding the budget, support for Ukraine, and other key issues.
— How will the results of the U.S. election impact events in Germany? What are the possible scenarios?
— Olaf Scholz and Joe Biden squandered nearly three years by failing to provide Ukraine with the support needed to turn the tide of the war. As a result, all possible scenarios involving Ukraine, NATO, and collective defence have become vastly more expensive, forcing us to scramble for resources to make up for what was neglected. The key question now is: at what cost? Will it be social welfare? Pensions? The energy transition? Something will have to give, and it’s going to be a painful, hard-fought internal battle.
