According to a recent sociological survey by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) titled “The Meaning of Sovereignty: Ukrainian and European Views on Russia’s War Against Ukraine,” the European public consistently supports providing weapons and ammunition to Ukraine. This survey, conducted across multiple countries, was published ahead of the 2024 NATO summit.
The survey notes that there is strong public support across Europe for increasing the supply of weapons and ammunition to Ukraine by its allies. This sentiment is particularly strong in Estonia, where 74% consider increasing ammunition and weapon supplies a “good idea.” Similar support is seen in Sweden (66%), Poland (66%), the United Kingdom (59%), the Netherlands (58%), and Portugal (57%). Significant portions of the population in Spain (45%), Germany (44%), France (43%), and the Czech Republic (43%) also back increasing supplies. However, in Bulgaria, Greece, and Italy, the majority of respondents (63%, 54%, and 53%, respectively) believe that increasing military support for Ukraine is a “bad idea.”
At the same time, most Europeans are not willing to increase their national defence spending despite the ongoing war in Ukraine. Significant support for boosting national defence budgets can be found only in Poland (53%), Estonia (45%), Sweden (41%), and Germany (40%), even if it means cutting expenses in areas like healthcare, education, and crime prevention. However, in most other countries, the prevailing opinion is that, despite the war, their nations should not allocate more funds to defence.
Sociologists also identified differing views on how the war will end. “Attitudes toward the war in Europe fall into three distinct categories: those who want Ukraine to defeat Russia (the ‘Justice camp’), those who want the war to end as soon as possible on any terms (the ‘Peace camp’), and those who are undecided between these two positions (‘Swing states’).”
Respondents in Estonia (68%), Sweden (54%), Poland (50%), the United Kingdom (46%), and Portugal (42%) are the most likely to assert that “Europe should support Ukraine in reclaiming territories occupied by Russia.” Conversely, the majority in Bulgaria (61%), Greece (59%), and Italy (57%) believe that “Europe should push Ukraine toward peace negotiations with Russia.” Among those who are undecided are France (30% for military actions against 36% for peace negotiations), Spain (32% against 31%), the Netherlands (36% against 31%), Germany (31% against 41%), Switzerland (29% against 42%), and the Czech Republic (34% against 46%).
The findings indicate that while Ukrainians are confident in their ability to achieve victory over Russia on the battlefield, residents of the EU predominantly foresee the war concluding through negotiations. This sentiment holds true even in countries such as the United Kingdom, Poland, and Sweden, which are staunch supporters of Ukraine. This view is most prevalent among respondents in Greece (49%), Italy (48%), Bulgaria (46%), and Spain (45%). Among the surveyed countries, only in Estonia does the prevailing opinion (38%) hold that Ukraine will win the war.
However, Europeans’ confidence in Ukraine’s potential for victory increases by an average of 12 percentage points if the country receives increased weapons and ammunition from its allies. Despite this, in 11 out of 15 countries surveyed, the prevailing opinion is that a compromise is the most likely outcome. In France, 11% of respondents believe that the war in Ukraine will conclude “within a year,” while the majority, 42%, anticipate it ending “within one to five years.” Additionally, 20% of the French population believes that “Russia will win the war,” whereas 9% hold the view that Ukraine can achieve victory on the battlefield.
The study draws upon public opinion surveys conducted by Datapraxis in collaboration with YouGov, Norstat, Alpha Research, and Rating Group across 15 countries: Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, France, Germany, United Kingdom, Greece, Italy, Poland, Portugal, Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and Ukraine.
According to the study’s authors, foreign policy experts Ivan Krastev and Mark Leonard, these differences between European and Ukrainian perspectives could significantly complicate efforts to reach a consensus on how the war should end. Moreover, they suggest that these divisions may have considerable implications for Ukraine’s path toward NATO and EU membership.
