Every Tuesday, The Ukrainian Week/Tyzhden publishes an overview of the political, social and economic situation in Russia and Belarus in partnership with the Foreign Policy Council “Ukrainian Prism”. The Council’s Russian and Belarusian Studies Programme presents a new weekly #aggressoranalysis, in which Iaroslav Chornogor and Anton Oksentiuk analyse the latest news in Russian domestic and foreign policy.
This week’s highlights: Russia forces migrants to fight in Ukraine, new painful EU sanctions against Moscow, and arrest warrants for Shoigu and Gerasimov
Domestic policy takeaways:
- Russia begins to use migrants in the war against Ukraine. The Russian authorities are actively seeking new methods to increase mobilisation and enlist more troops in the army to sustain the ongoing conflict with Ukraine. Recently, during a session of the St. Petersburg Legal Forum, Alexander Bastrykin, head of the Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation, led discussions on potential legislative changes concerning migrant issues. He strongly advocated for strengthening Russian migration policies.
- Following a terrorist attack in Crocus City orchestrated by ISIS terrorists, Russian politicians launched a public campaign aimed at enhancing control over migrant communities. Subsequently, Russian security forces have conducted frequent raids on migrant settlements to verify documentation, citing national security concerns. President Putin has publicly stressed the necessity of digitising these processes, enabling real-time monitoring of migrant populations in Russia, their locations, and their potential mobilisation for military service. Currently, Russia lacks a formal migration control policy, potentially allowing the Kremlin to involve migrants in hostilities without bureaucratic obstacles.
- Bastrykin’s remarks on methods to control migrant numbers by identifying those who have acquired Russian citizenship and deploying them to participate in the war were profoundly significant. The figures speak volumes: 30,000 individuals have registered for military service, and 10,000 new Russian citizens are already engaged in combat in Ukraine. Bastrykin acknowledged that his investigators are actively addressing this issue despite it falling outside the Investigative Committee’s legal jurisdiction under Russian law. This approach underscores Russia’s increasing integration of the migrant community into military affairs, potentially offering an alternative to the current mobilisation strategy, which includes substantial financial incentives for Russians signing contracts with the Ministry of Defence, along with ongoing increases in these incentives.
- Kadyrov continues to appoint his own relatives to senior positions in Chechnya. Ramzan Kadyrov, the self-styled leader of Chechnya, continues to consolidate power by appointing his relatives to key positions within the republic, a practice that has gained momentum amid recent speculation about his health. Last week, Kadyrov appointed his nephew, Khamzat Kadyrov, son of his own brother Ramzan Kadyrov, as the secretary of the Chechen Security Council. Prior to this role, Khamzat Kadyrov held a lengthy tenure as head of a local municipal district and ascended to deputy head of the Chechen government in 2023.
- This appointment marks a continuation of Kadyrov’s strategy, which began in 2023, to strategically place his relatives and close associates in prominent roles within Chechnya. Presently, 9 out of 23 positions in the Chechen government are occupied by his family members. Recently, Kadyrov also appointed one of his most trusted allies, Magomed Daudov, as prime minister.
- These appointments coincide with reports of Kadyrov’s deteriorating health. In April 2024, Novaya Gazeta Evropa published a detailed article asserting that the Chechen leader is afflicted with pancreatic necrosis, with the prognosis suggesting no chance of recovery.
Foreign policy takeaways:
- EU introduces 14th package of sanctions against Russia. The European Union has unveiled its latest measure against Russia with the introduction of a 14th package of sanctions. This round targets 116 individuals and entities deemed responsible for actions undermining or posing threats to Ukraine’s territorial integrity, sovereignty, and independence.
- This latest round of sanctions deals a severe blow to the Russian economy, particularly targeting its energy sector and efforts to circumvent sanctions. For instance, the EU has now banned the transhipment of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) through its ports, a crucial route previously used by Russia for exporting to third countries. Moreover, the EU has prohibited any investment in Moscow’s LNG projects, a move similar to sanctions imposed earlier by the United States, which had a significant impact on Russia’s energy industry. In April 2024, the ambitious Arctic LNG 2 project by Novatek was effectively halted due to challenges in acquiring specialized ice-class tankers for LNG transport. This led the company to refocus on its second LNG project, Murmansk LNG, located in Murmansk. The 14th package of sanctions has hit Novatek hard, compounded by similar measures previously imposed by London. These developments make Moscow’s ambitious goal of increasing its global LNG market share from 8% to 20% by 2030-2035 a daunting challenge.
- International Criminal Court issues arrest warrants for Shoigu and Gerasimov. On June 25, Pre-Trial Chamber II of the International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants for former Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov. The warrants allege their involvement in war crimes and crimes against humanity, specifically related to attacks on civilian infrastructure and civilians.
- In Russia, the response to the decision has been notably intense. Officially, the Kremlin, represented by President Putin’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, dismissed the International Criminal Court’s rulings as absurd. Meanwhile, Dmitry Medvedev, the outspoken deputy secretary of the Security Council and former president, acknowledged for the first time the severity of Western actions against Moscow, including sanctions, asset seizures, and legal proceedings against Russian officials. Medvedev remarked on social media that Russia might interpret these Western measures as grounds for war despite earlier official propaganda dismissing European and American sanctions and decisions. It’s noteworthy that Moscow’s references to nuclear weapons and war continue to underscore its serious concerns about these developments.
- New Russian Defense Minister Belousov spoke with US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin. On June 25, reports emerged of a telephone conversation between US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov, marking their first dialogue in 15 months. The United States initiated the call to establish communication with Belousov, who was newly appointed as defence minister. The timing of the conversation, shortly after a recent Ukrainian attack on Crimea, where debris from a downed missile landed on a local beach, killing several Russians, suggests this incident prompted the discussion. Moscow subsequently accused Washington of attributing the strike as a US attack on Russia. It’s likely Austin reiterated the Pentagon’s stance that Ukraine independently selects its targets for attacks. Overall, such ministerial talks are standard for maintaining contacts and exchanging perspectives.
