On June 2, Mexico made history with its general elections, achieving the highest voter turnout ever and paving the way for its first female leader. However, what implications do these elections hold for Ukraine? What factors influence voting behaviour in Mexico and across Latin America? Recently, experts from the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation and the School for Political Analysis at NaUKMA joined discussions with active Ukrainian diplomats in the region alongside Mexican election campaign consultant Luis Estrada.
***
Claudia Sheinbaum has made history as Mexico’s first female president, securing a decisive victory in Sunday’s election. According to Mexico’s official electoral authority, preliminary results show the 61-year-old former mayor of Mexico City winning between 58% and 60% of the vote, giving her a commanding 30-point lead over her main rival, businesswoman Xóchitl Gálvez. Sheinbaum will succeed her mentor, outgoing President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, on October 1.
She’s poised to confront a mounting array of challenges. Security emerges as the paramount concern for voters, as indicated by various polls. Media accounts paint a grim picture of Mexico’s organized crime, which wields immense power, extorting everyone from gas stations to avocado farmers. “Even the most impoverished Mexicans fall prey to extortion by criminal syndicates,” notes NPR. The homicide rate remains alarmingly high, claiming over 30,000 lives annually—nearly half the figure in the United States. This election cycle has taken a deadly turn, with over 30 candidates falling victim to violence orchestrated by criminals.
The economy presents another potential hurdle on the horizon. According to Bloomberg, Mexico’s economic growth has been hovering just above 2% annually in recent years, trailing behind its developing counterparts. While the country has managed to surpass analysts’ post-pandemic expectations, 2024 might bring about economic challenges. “The incoming president will be confronted with persistent inflation, soaring interest rates, and the largest budget deficit since the 1980s.” Nevertheless, it’s worth highlighting that under the leadership of Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), Mexico has seen improvements. “Poverty rates have declined, the real value of the daily minimum wage has more than doubled to 248.9 Mexican pesos, roughly $14.7, and a substantial $43 billion has been earmarked for social programs this year, with over half dedicated to supporting the elderly.”
Meanwhile, critics are pointing fingers at President López Obrador, accusing him of steering Mexico towards populism and even authoritarianism. “In recent years, there’s been growing concern over the threat of populism to democracy. This isn’t just a Latin American issue; it’s happening in Europe and even the United States. There’s also worry that leaders and governments undermining democracy by dismantling democratic institutions tend to lean towards the right-wing ideology. However, elections remain a cornerstone of democracy, still intact in most countries, including Mexico, despite outliers like Venezuela, Cuba, Nicaragua, and possibly El Salvador. And these elections reveal that, except for those mentioned outliers, most countries have witnessed a change in party leadership from one election to the next, often voting against the incumbent government,” highlighted Luis Estrada Straffon, a professor at the Independent Mexican Institute of Technology (ITAM) and the brains behind SPIN-Taller de Comunicación Política, a consulting firm. This insight emerged during a thought-provoking expert discussion hosted by the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation and the School for Political Analysis at NaUKMA. According to the expert, the change of government in these countries signifies that the electorate is holding bad governance accountable, regardless of political ideology.
“Ideology doesn’t carry the same weight in our cultures as it does, say, in Europe. Unlike in Europe, where political parties stem directly from ideology, in Mexico and Latin America, it’s the other way around. Here, political parties are forged by powerful charismatic leaders, what we call ‘caciques’—leaders who aren’t driven by ideology—so they lack the ideological roots you’d find in the United States or Europe,” explains Luis Estrada Straffon.
Elections in Mexico and potential Russian influence
During the discussion, Oksana Dramaretska, Ukraine’s Ambassador to Mexico, highlighted an important aspect of Mexican elections. In this vast country of 140 million people, elections are conducted in a single round, presenting additional avenues for manipulation and the utilisation of diverse electoral technologies. Furthermore, there is significant involvement from Russians in its electoral landscape.
Their involvement has garnered attention from American media, which have recently reported on the rise of Russian propaganda outlets and diplomatic activities in the lead-up to the elections. Moreover, according to Luis Estrada Straffon, Mexico’s participation in the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) somewhat diminishes Russia’s sway in the country. “Nevertheless, this doesn’t mean that Russia’s influence is completely nullified. It’s also worth noting that the populist strategies of leaders like López Obrador, as well as others in Latin America such as Maduro or Castro in Cuba, involve exerting pressure on the United States by engaging not only with Russia but also with China, showcasing that Mexico has alternatives beyond the U.S. This dynamic is echoed by other nations like Venezuela, Cuba, and so forth. Furthermore, I believe that besides the political and symbolic impact of agreements or specific arrangements between Russia and Mexico during López Obrador’s tenure, they were more tailored to specific aspects rather than encompassing broader policies that could affect Mexico or Russia,” the expert highlights.
For instance, Mexico stood out as one of the few nations, not only in Latin America but globally, to approve Russian vaccines for its citizens. “Consequently, not only did the European Union but also the United States prohibit entry to individuals vaccinated with these shots. Many Mexicans were genuinely dismayed by the government’s failure to disclose these repercussions. Naturally, the Mexican government’s and President López Obrador’s reluctance to outright condemn Russia’s aggression against Ukraine will impact the Mexican president’s reputation and, of course, the candidacy of Claudia Sheinbaum (whom he and his party endorse—ed.) in the elections.”
Thus, as Luis Estrada Straffon suggests, the dalliance with Russia serves as a means to exert more influence over the United States, either to secure advantageous deals or to avoid showcasing Mexico as vulnerable as it was in its dealings with the U.S.
Nevertheless, Russia’s influence in Mexico could shift if Donald Trump secures victory in the United States elections. “Despite Claudia Sheinbaum and López Obrador affirming their lack of sympathy towards Donald Trump, ultimately, they would favour his presidency over Joe Biden’s. This is a factor worth noting,” suggests Luis Estrada Straffon.
Ukraine and Latin America: context and key trends
Understanding the context and key trends is crucial for engaging with any Latin American country. It’s essential to grasp the underlying factors of various political behaviours and key approaches to shaping internal policies. In this regard, comprehending the concept of “punishment voting” in Mexico and the region’s countries is highly important for Ukraine. Ruslan Spirin, the Special Representative of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine in Latin America and the Caribbean Basin, explained during the discussion.
“Latin America stands out for its rapid political shifts and inherent instability. It’s clear that electoral decisions often mirror deeper societal undercurrents. The notion of ‘punishment voting’ or ‘voto castigo’ is gaining traction, particularly amid political turmoil. Driven by profound disillusionment with the established order, voters are turning away from conventional parties and leaders, rallying behind alternative figures promising change,” the diplomat stressed. “In Mexico, ‘punishment voting’ isn’t merely altering electoral outcomes; it’s fundamentally reshaping political dialogue. Engaging in the electoral process represents a proactive pursuit of justice and integrity in governance. It marks a significant stride towards a more participatory democracy, where citizens hold leaders accountable not just for personal agendas but for the collective welfare of the nation.”
It’s crucial for Ukraine to grasp and tactically engage with the phenomenon of “punishment voting,” particularly prevalent in Latin American countries like Mexico. This trend coincides with the surge of anti-establishment sentiments seen in nations such as Brazil and Argentina, where leaders promising radical changes and challenging traditional political norms have been elected. While reflecting the populace’s desires, this political upheaval also presents stability and consistency challenges, notes Ruslan Spirin. Interacting with Latin American experiences and formulating modern policies becomes imperative for Ukraine as it navigates potential risks of instability and unpredictability in foreign affairs due to radical shifts in the region. However, these changes also offer opportunities for forging new alliances based on mutual goals of governance reforms and innovation, the diplomat suggests. Spirin underscores the importance of Ukrainians leveraging revolutionary management experiences and reform strategies from Latin America. Facilitating exchanges on combatting corruption, promoting transparency, and enhancing civic engagement can lay a solid groundwork for bilateral relations. Furthermore, Ukraine’s robust civil society and burgeoning presence in the global arena are pivotal in shaping a more contemporary state, Spirin adds. He also highlights Ukraine’s e-governance as a potential blueprint for Latin American nations grappling with similar governance challenges. Ukraine needs to tailor its policies for Mexico by taking into account regional priorities and decision-making processes.
