Every Tuesday, The Ukrainian Week/Tyzhden publishes an overview of the political, social and economic situation in Russia and Belarus in partnership with the Foreign Policy Council “Ukrainian Prism”. The Council’s Russian and Belarusian Studies Programme presents a new weekly #aggressoranalysis, in which Iaroslav Chornogor and Anton Oksentiuk analyse the latest news in Russian domestic and foreign policy.
This week’s highlights: consolidation of the Russian “opposition”, growing effectiveness of anti-Russian sanctions and protests in Bashkortostan.
Domestic policy takeaways:
In the past week, the Kremlin faced challenges from Boris Nadezhdin, an “opposition” presidential candidate from the Civic Initiative party. Nadezhdin, likely to be a controlled liberal politician, could serve as a pawn to demonstrate the Kremlin’s commitment to a “democratic” process, showcasing the inclusion of a Russian political opponent as evidence of “competition” in domestic politics. The ongoing signature collection process requires Nadezhdin to secure 100,000 signatures by the January 25 deadline. However, as of January 16, he had only gathered around 13,000 signatures. The Kremlin’s approval of his “opposition” candidacy may have been strategic, anticipating challenges for Nadezhdin in amassing the required signatures.
- On January 19, a well-known Russian blogger and politician, Maxim Katz, published material urging support for Nadezhdin’s candidacy. Subsequently, several other Russian “oppositionists,” including Ivan Zhdanov, the “head” of Navalny’s anti-corruption foundation, Mikhail Khodorkovsky, Yekaterina Duntova, and other relatively well-known public figures in the Russian media space, voiced their support. This informational “unification” resulted in Nadezhdin collecting 83,000 signatures as of January 22. Simultaneously, the real problem for the Kremlin lies in the media coverage surrounding Nadezhdin’s campaign. The Russian media consistently presents video and photo materials of queues for signatures, creating an impression of massive support from citizens. In essence, there is an active mobilisation of the pro-liberal Russian electorate. In the early stages of the Russian presidential election campaign, Ukrainian Prism described how the Kremlin has been purging the media space since the summer of 2023 to fully control it before March 2024. The Russian authorities have barred potentially threatening candidates from participating, regardless of their political stance. Nadezhdin’s situation creates pressure and a nervous predicament for the Kremlin, as allowing him to run in the elections would be risky. Putin is left with two options: first, to permit Nadezhdin to be a candidate, which could lead to potential consolidation around his figure, or second, and more likely, the Russian authorities, represented by their Central Election Commission, may reject signatures, declaring a high number of them as “invalid.” The Kremlin has already demonstrated through its actions that the presence of a candidate with an anti-military position is unacceptable, as it has the potential to publicly reveal that a certain number of Russian citizens oppose the invasion of Ukraine. This fact will shape the Russian authorities’ subsequent actions concerning Nadezhdin.
- The Kremlin is grappling with intense protests against Russian authorities’ arbitrary treatment of local activists and environmental and social issues in Bashkortostan. Since January 15, local citizens have been participating in demonstrations and protests in the town of Baymak in response to the authorities’ criminal case against civil society activist Fail Alsynov. He faces criminal charges of “extremism” and “inciting ethnic hatred” and has been sentenced to four years in prison for opposing the mining of resources on Mount Kushtau, a move that would result in its disappearance. Throughout the protests, clashes occurred between protesters and Russian security forces; the protesters initiated road blockades, and the authorities started blocking the Internet. It is reported that several thousand people participated in the protest on January 17 in front of the court building, out of a population of 17,000.
- Fail Alsinov is one of the most prominent Bashkir activists and public figures who has dedicated almost his entire life to fighting for the cultural preservation of the Bashkirs and the region’s natural resources and monuments.
- The environmental problems stem from the unbridled actions of Russian companies involved in resource mining, effectively seizing land from the Bashkirs. Additionally, these actions will result in migration outflows, a concern that has sparked protests by local citizens in the past. Currently, social and environmental rhetoric forms the basis for potential protests against Russian authorities throughout Russia. Through this rhetoric, we are witnessing the emergence of new leaders capable of opposing the Russian authorities politically through ostensibly non-political discourse.
- The Russian authorities are continuing to take further steps that would enable them to handle any anti-government actions by Russian citizens more effectively. Primarily, this pertains to public criticism of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the actions of the Russian military. It has been revealed that the Russian government has enacted a law that allows for the confiscation of property belonging to individuals convicted of disseminating so-called “fakes” about the army. Once implemented, this law will serve as another means of exerting pressure on citizens who oppose the government.
- The case against the Russian terrorist Strelkov-Girkin, currently in jail and on trial for “extremism,” is nearing its end. It was revealed last week that the prosecutor had sought a penalty of almost 5 years in a prison colony, the maximum sentence under Strelkov’s criminal article. Additionally, the prosecution has requested a three-year ban on Strelkov’s “right to administrate websites in telecommunication networks, including the Internet.” Strelkov’s verdict is expected on January 25. This marks the Kremlin’s move to shut down this long-standing component of Russia’s “patriotic” information space.
Foreign policy takeaways:
- Recently, Russia has faced fresh economic challenges related to financial control and methods to circumvent Western sanctions. Notably, these challenges emerged last week from countries that had previously aided Russia in bypassing sanctions and had refrained from imposing sanctions themselves. This development takes place against the backdrop of heightened scrutiny by the United States over the enforcement of sanctions:
- On January 16, Bloomberg published an article claiming that at least two Chinese banks have initiated the process of reviewing their own Russian businesses for cross-border transactions. Their source stated that Chinese banks would sever ties with clients on the sanctions list and cease to provide financial services to the Russian military sector, regardless of the currency and location of the transactions. Interestingly, Russian authorities, represented by Putin’s press secretary Peskov, immediately commented on this publication and asserted that the Kremlin is not involved in financial transactions. They once again emphasised the high level of relations between Russia and China.
- On the same day, Reuters published a report about Turkey, stating that Turkish exporters have encountered growing payment problems over the past week. Mustafa Gültepe, chairman of the Turkish Exporters’ Assembly, mentioned that remittances from Russian companies not under Western sanctions had been processed smoothly until now. However, audits and inspections at the end of the year had slowed down the payment process.
- Similar news came from Saudi Arabia, whose Minister of Commerce denied reports that his country had joined the BRICS. On January 2, Reuters noted that Al-Ikhbariya media outlet published news that Saudi Arabia had joined the organisation but subsequently deleted the message after a while.
- This news shows us that the renewed Western strategy aimed at monitoring the implementation of the sanctions that have already been imposed is beginning to work and that Russia’s “partners” are rejecting the potential risk of being subject to these restrictions.
- In the past week, Russia encountered political pressure regarding the “peace formula,” a diplomatic initiative to end the Russian-Ukrainian war. A crucial meeting took place in Davos, where national security advisors from 83 states and international organisations participated. Notably, countries from the Global South were also present, highlighting a significant aspect of the gathering. Russia’s keen focus on this region in its foreign policy aims to showcase global engagement and dispel the notion of isolation. However, the ongoing advocacy for the Ukrainian plan may adversely affect Russia’s potential negotiations, particularly with non-Western states, given Russia itself has not publicly presented any comprehensive plan to end the war.
- Putin is reportedly considering a visit to North Korea, a development revealed during the visit of the North Korean Foreign Minister to Russia. Official reports indicate that both sides engaged in discussions about “practical measures to fully implement the agreements reached at the historic Korean-Russian summit in September 2023.” The talks aimed to enhance Korean-Russian friendship by intensifying bilateral exchanges and cooperation across various areas in this milestone year, marking the 75th anniversary of the agreement on Korean-Russian economic and cultural cooperation. Putin’s visit likely aims to negotiate the continued supply of weapons from North Korea and explore possibilities for extending this arrangement. Moreover, there’s a potential for showcasing these weapons in real combat scenarios and selling them to other countries, serving as a crucial aspect behind the decision to supply weapons, including missiles, to Russia. The likelihood of Russia continuing to provide North Korea with various military technologies adds complexity to the situation, contributing to a heightened crisis on the Korean Peninsula. Recent news about the escalating tensions between North Korea and South Korea further compounds the challenges in the region.
