Yesterday, the leaders of the European Union approved the European Commission’s recommendation to start accession talks with Ukraine and Moldova. Charles Michel, the President of the European Council, announced this on the evening of December 14, immediately after the first day of the EU summit in Brussels. Yet, Ukraine has to pass through two more stages on its way to EU membership. The first one is the adoption of the negotiating mandate between the Commission and the candidate country; the second is the convening of an intergovernmental conference. It is expected to happen no earlier than March.
The European Commission announced it was already preparing the technical aspects of the accession negotiations with Ukraine. They may be approved at the next EU summit, planned for spring 2024.
“Undoubtedly, this is a historic decision for Ukraine. It provides even fewer reasons for Putin to continue the war. It would be good if next year Ukraine also received a ‘green light’ for NATO membership at the Washington summit,” explains an expert on international affairs, Oleksandr Khara. “Ukrainian society clearly signalled its intention to join the EU and embrace European values during the Euromaidan and the Revolution of Dignity. However, only the large-scale Russian invasion in February 2022 changed Ukraine’s perception of the world. Ukraine is a European state and it’s worth securing its partnership. It is not in Europe’s interest for Ukraine to remain in the grey zone or, even worse – to align itself with Russia”.
The EU’s groundbreaking decision to start accession negotiations with Ukraine marks a clear shift towards real integration with Europe. Previously, Ukraine remained, so to speak, ‘in the vestibule’. Now, the EU has chosen to take decisive actions. Turkey, on the other hand, has remained an EU candidate for decades, but a decision on starting negotiations is yet to be made. Ukraine is moving forward at a much faster pace.
“The further development of events will depend not only on how quickly Ukraine implements the EU’s recommendations but also on the political situation in the EU member states. Undoubtedly, Hungary will come back with more unfounded claims. Certainly, there will also be justified ones, because countries must naturally defend their own interests. Most likely, we will have issues with Poland, as our economies are similar in structure. This will primarily affect agriculture – for example, the grain trade. We have already seen that certain decisions can be politicised”, says Oleksandr Khara.
At the same time, Viktor Orban, the prime minister of Hungary, managed to block the decision on the long-term budgetary EU aid for Ukraine, which was valued at 50 billion euros. According to Bloomberg, Orban indicated that he would only support the new EU aid package once Hungary receives its frozen funds. The day before, the European Commission already unblocked 10 billion euros from EU funds to Budapest. Before, the money was frozen due to Hungary’s inability to adhere to legal standards required by the EU.
“The goals of the Hungarian political regime coincide with Putin’s. In addition, Orban voiced concerns that subsidies to Ukraine would be too large. This would mean a reduction in assistance to other countries. When it comes to Ukraine, there are justified concerns about our political system. We are a democracy, but unfortunately, an imperfect one.”
“There are questions regarding the rule of law; our judicial system is our Achilles’ heel, it is corrupt and ineffective. This may pose certain risks to the EU.”
“But, on the other hand, Hungary is also facing severe issues when it comes to the rule of law, freedom of speech, and civil organisations. In other words, an EU member state, which formally leapt back to ‘Soviet’ times, is making claims against Ukraine. So, this is very complex”.
Negotiations regarding Ukraine’s candidacy for the EU and NATO have revealed that there is an urgent need to update the way large international structures function. Solutions in favour of Ukraine may potentially be blocked either by Hungary, Slovakia, or other governments influenced by the Kremlin.
“It is not Ukraine that Orban would like to defeat first, but the European Union. Therefore, he effectively blocked the allocation of funds to Ukraine. It should be understood that we will still receive this funding. However, the procedure will be slightly different within the EU; it will happen on a bilateral level, liaising with EU member states. Europeans have already considered this option but, of course, did not want to show that EU decisions can be blocked and depend on the mood of one person. They sought to demonstrate that everything is agreed upon collectively. It didn’t work out. Yet, in Europe, many politicians understand that support for Ukraine is crucial not only for Ukraine. We are holding back the enemy on our territory at the cost of our Ukrainian soldiers’ lives. That’s why the German government increased security assistance to Ukraine to 8 billion euros. It is especially needed when U.S. funding is delayed (the U.S. Congress approved funding for the federal government but did not include assistance to Ukraine for $61,4 billion and to Israel for $14,3 billion, as requested by President Joe Biden. Therefore, the Senate decided not to go on vacation and continue negotiations with Republicans).”
Don’t forget about Moldova and Georgia. If these countries do not become part of the European military space in the future, Russia will redirect its aggression towards them. Even if the current government in Georgia does not fully reflect the values of the European Union, yesterday’s decision is an important gesture towards Georgian society and Georgian people.
“I remember how, in the early 2000s, Hungarian consuls would openly distribute Hungarian passports on the territory of Ukraine, essentially conducting subversive espionage activities. Unfortunately, there was no harsh response from Ukraine at that time.”
“We need to work with political elites. Hungary itself is a friendly country. People help and support Ukrainians in its fight for survival . But, sadly, their government is a Trojan horse for Russia and China”.
“Our political forces should work with Hungarians by sharing the right information and revealing fakes so that they would understand that Orban is leading the country in the wrong direction. Perhaps then, in the next elections, they could choose a pro-European leader”, emphasised Oleksandr Khara.
